I started thinking more deeply about the cost of college after watching a YouTube video titled “How AI is Pushing Tech Workers to Blue-Collar Jobs”. It raised an interesting point about how Artificial Intelligence is already reshaping white-collar work and why blue-collar jobs may become more attractive in the future. It made me wonder if this same shift could eventually drive education costs down as demand for college degrees begins to decline.

This is not meant to be an exhaustive research piece but rather a personal reflection. The rise of AI made me think about how the same economic principles of supply and demand that shape industries also apply to education.

1960s: Blue Collar as the Backbone

In the 1960s, America’s economy was built on manufacturing, construction, and agriculture. These blue-collar sectors powered urban growth and formed the backbone of middle-class stability. According to the YouTube video that sparked this reflection, less than 10% of Americans aged 25 and older had completed four years of college at that time. U.S. Census data from 1960 shows the number was about 7.7%, which supports that estimate (U.S. Census Bureau). High school graduation rates were also significantly lower than today. Despite this, stable roles as plumbers, electricians, or mechanics were accessible and plentiful.

Office jobs were comparatively scarce, and higher education was not seen as a prerequisite for success. A degree was valuable, but not essential.

1980s to 2000s: The Rise of the Degree Economy

By the 1980s, the U.S. economy was shifting rapidly toward service industries and high-tech fields. Suddenly, a college degree became not just desirable but the standard ticket to a white-collar career. With higher pay and elevated social status tied to degrees, young people pursued them at higher rates.

In 1990, just over 21% of U.S. adults had a bachelor’s degree. By 2015, nearly 33% did, a 57% increase in prevalence in just 25 years (NCES / Census data). At the same time, professional and technical fields increasingly required degrees, reinforcing the cycle of demand (St. Louis Fed).

The message was clear: if you wanted stability and success, you needed a diploma.

Why Tuition Exploded

This demand combined with systemic changes that pushed costs even higher:

• Supply and demand: More students chasing degrees gave universities pricing power.
• Public funding cuts: Since the 1980s, many states reduced higher-education budgets, shifting the burden to families. Some states cut funding by more than 60% (College Board).
• Administrative growth and amenities: Universities added layers of staff, programs, and facilities to attract students, creating an “arms race” in spending (College Board).

"Between 1987 and 2011, American colleges and universities hired more than 517,000 administrators and nonacademic staff— roughly 87 every day. This new spending, combined with the decline of state funding, helped lead the average tuition at four-year universities to roughly double from the early 1990s to the early 2020s"

The result was dramatic. Tuition and fees increased over 1,200% since 1980, while overall inflation rose only about 236% in the same period (Visual Capitalist). To put that in perspective, tuition at private universities rose from about $9,882 in 1980-81 to $26,740 by 2014-15, while public universities rose from about $2,196 to $8,534 (inflation-adjusted) (Business Insider).

The AI Disruption: Why Costs May Plateau or Fall

Here is where I believe the future changes. Artificial intelligence is already reshaping white-collar work—from administrative tasks and data analysis to customer support and even elements of coding. A Goldman Sachs report estimates that up to 300 million full-time jobs globally could be exposed to automation by generative AI, with particularly high exposure in office, legal, and engineering roles (Goldman Sachs).

This undermines one of the key reasons families invest so heavily in college: access to stable, high-paying office jobs. If those jobs shrink or become less lucrative due to automation, the return on investment for a degree starts to look questionable.

Meanwhile, skilled trades are experiencing a resurgence. Electricians, plumbers, welders, and other tradespeople are in high demand—especially where infrastructure needs are rising and experienced workers are retiring. This demand is helping push wages upward. For example, some specialized roles like energy-efficient electricians or welding contractors report six-figure earnings when including overtime or business ownership benefits. These roles are also among the least susceptible to automation, giving blue-collar work both economic stability and renewed social value.

For the next generation, the calculation may change. Unless you are pursuing a profession that truly requires advanced education, such as doctors, lawyers, or researchers, the value of a four-year degree may not justify the cost. And if enough families start to question that value, universities may be forced to rein in tuition increases just to maintain enrollment.

Conclusion

The skyrocketing cost of college was driven by a mix of economics and policy: rising demand for degrees, falling public support, and universities that expanded without restraint. But the same economic forces that drove costs up may soon start to shift in the other direction.

AI is already changing the landscape of white-collar work, and as trades rise in both pay and prestige, the old assumption that “college is the only path” may fade. For the first time in decades, we might see families and students push back, and higher education may finally have to rethink its pricing model.

For decades, we have questioned why college tuition has increased so dramatically. It is easy to assume the answer is pure greed. I believe greed has played a part, but supply and demand also cannot be ignored. More people wanted degrees, which created upward pricing pressure. Still, just because there is demand does not mean costs have to rise at an exponential rate. Universities have a responsibility to society, not only to their bottom line.